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03/17/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In a potential mismatch on the NBA docket, the Western Conference power Utah Jazz welcome the lowly Minnesota Timberwolves to Salt Lake City tonight.
The Jazz, who are currently the fourth seed in the West, snapped a rare two- game skid on Monday with a win over another also-ran, the Washington Wizards. Carlos Boozer led the way in that one with 23 points and nine rebounds as the Jazz sent the reeling Wizards to their eighth consecutive defeat, a 112-89 setback, at EnergySolutions Arena.
Deron Williams added 17 points and 11 assists, but sat out the fourth quarter for the Jazz after landing awkwardly in the waning moments of the third. Sundiata Gaines totaled a career-high 15 points as the Jazz had seven players score in double figures.
Mehmet Okur returned from a one-game absence due to a strained back and had 14 points for the Jazz, who won for the fifth time in seven contests. They were coming off a 2-2 road trip.
"I was proud of us," Boozer said. "We lost two tough ones on the road. We just played [Sunday] and we came back [Monday] and acted like we didn't play last night. Hungry. We beat a team that had been playing pretty good."
Williams is expected to play tonight while forward Andrei Kirilenko, who missed his second straight game on Monday with a strained left calf, remains questionable.
The Wolves, meanwhile, continue to mail it in down the stretch, dropping their 10th consecutive game last night. Jason Richardson led eight Phoenix players in double figures in that one with 27 points as the Suns lit up the scoreboard with a 152-114 win.
Amare Stoudemire netted 25 points and Steve Nash added 13 along with 14 assists as the Suns set an NBA-high for points in a game this season.
"That's what happens when you don't play any defense," Timberwolves coach Kurt Rambis said.
Corey Brewer racked up 21 points and Ryan Gomes added 18 for the lowly T-Wolves, who have lost 16 of their last 17 overall and have the worst record in the Western Conference.
Despite their monumental struggles this season, the Wolves have actually taken two of three meeting from Utah this season, including their last trip to Salt Lake -- a 110-108 triumph in December.
<< Raptors return home to face Hawks
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Hoping to hold on to a playoff berth that's beginning to
slip away, the Toronto Raptors return to the Air Canada Centre this evening
for an important matchup with an Atlanta Hawks team that figures to be without
its lea
<< Road-weary Pacers try to fix issues in Cleveland
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - An Indiana Pacers team that's had its share of troubles on
the road will face another tough challenge in tonight's visit to Quicken Loans
Arena for a bout with the NBA-best Cleveland Cavaliers.
The Pacers have lost eigh
<< Reeling Bulls visit powerhouse Mavs
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago Bulls have picked a bad time to start playing
poorly and their chances of ending an eight-game slide don't look so promising
with tonight's road matchup against the Dallas Mavericks.
The Bulls have also dropped
<< Basement brawl: Woeful Nets visit lowly Sixers
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The bottom two teams of the Atlantic Division will go head-
to-head for the final time of the 2009-10 campaign this evening at the
Wachovia Center, where the homestanding 76ers aim for a season sweep of the
dismal
Scorching Bucks try to take down reeling Clippers >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The red-hot Milwaukee Bucks aim for their longest winning
streak in eight seasons tonight, when they face off with the reeling Los
Angeles Clippers at Staples Center.
The Bucks, who are kicking off a three-game road trip t
Nationals release Dukes >>
Kissimmee, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Washington Nationals have released
outfielder Elijah Dukes.
The team announced the news Wednesday in a brief release, which did not
provide a reason for the move.
Dukes, 25, was expecte
Reina close to inking new Liverpool contract >>
Liverpool, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Liverpool goalkeeper Jose Reina has
confirmed that he is on the verge of penning a new contract with the Anfield-
based club.
The 27-year-old Spaniard is settled on Merseyside and is happy to com
Jones relieved by injury news >>
Sunderland, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sunderland have been boosted by the
news that striker Kenwyne Jones' hip injury is not as serious as was first
feared.
The 25-year-old frontman had to be replaced at halftime of the 1-1 draw w
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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