Here's hoping a sad end doesn't turn tragic

Basketball Betting Lines

03/05/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Age guarantees a lot of things.

It's almost a give-and-take process. A lot of physical attributes like speed, strength and reaction time slow at the same time one's knowledge and wisdom are expanding.

It's almost a cruel joke, one that Allen Iverson is going through right now.

What "Father Time" doesn't guarantee is maturity, a learned rather than instinctual behavior that is never determined by one's age.

Iverson was an immature 17-year-old teenager in 1993 when he was convicted for his part in a Hampton, Virginia bowling alley brawl that left him incarcerated for four months. The case became a bit of a cause-celebre after he was convicted as an adult of the felony charge of maiming by mob, a rarely used Virginia statute that was originally designed to combat lynching.

After Iverson spent four months at a correctional facility in Newport News, Va., he was granted clemency by then Virginia Governor Douglas Wilder, and the Virginia Court of Appeals eventually overturned the conviction in 1995 for insufficient evidence. By most accounts, Iverson was railroaded, likely because of the color of his skin.

Nearly 20 years later, Iverson might as well be that same teenager. People close to the mercurial guard have pointed to his ordeal in Virginia as the one that shaped adult years that have been dotted with the same signs of immaturity.

It didn't have to be like that. Unlike a lot of young African-Americans, Iverson got a second chance. In fact, calling his career a second chance is a bit of an understatement considering Iverson has been paid over $153 million dollars to play basketball over the last 15 years.

Evidently, you can't buy maturity.

In 1997, A.I. Was a 22-year-old when he was pinched on misdemeanor charges of marijuana and gun-possession, resulting in a plea bargain that carried three- years probation.

At 25, his immaturity resurfaced when he recorded a rap CD with lyrics that mocked homosexuals and embarrassed his employer.

In 2002, when Iverson was 27, he allegedly broke into a West Philadelphia apartment and threatened two men with a gun while looking for his estranged wife Tawanna, resulting in terroristic threats charges.

A year later a member of Cru-Thick, Iverson's posse, was shot in the leg in the Old City section of Philly and police believed Iverson may have also been targeted.

In 2005, Iverson was served with a civil lawsuit when two men claimed his bodyguard beat them in a Washington D.C. nightclub and one of the men was awarded over a quarter of a million dollars.

Last week, just months after reuniting with his old team, Iverson was sent home by the Philadelphia 76ers. The cover story this time was Iverson's 4- year-old daughter, Messiah, who is suffering from a still undisclosed illness,

In his last absence from the team before the release, Iverson was spotted at the Central Intercollegiate Athletic Association tournament in Charlotte, N.C., reportedly for a fund-raising commitment that included partying with hip-hop star Jermaine Dupri, far away from his daughter in Atlanta.

The latest blow to A.I. came on Tuesday when Tawanna Iverson filed for divorce in Fulton County, Ga. Superior Court.

The newspaper also reported that several NBA sources have confirmed Iverson has been troubled by excessive drinking and has a number of outstanding civil lawsuits filed against him.

For once I'm not worried about Iverson's legendary selfishness, his stunning lack of maturity and a reputation as a coach-killer.

His personal life is starting to resemble a runaway train, and I'm hoping a sad end on the basketball floor doesn't turn into a tragic one off it.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.